News for the Week of 3/12/17

  • Commercial Real Estate Backed Loans. Looks like J.C. Penney store closures could impair $30b of loans.
  • European Elections & CDS. Investors perceive greater redenomination risk in France and Germany.
  • European Retail. It seems the bloody retail phenomenon isn't exclusive to US retailers. Jack Wolfskin, a German producer of outdoor wear and equipment, is in the midst of a restructuring of its $365mm of debt. The Blackstone Group is the company's sponsor and PJT Partners is shopping the company. Meanwhile, Jaeger, a UK-based clothier is also on the block, with an administration within the bounds of possibility. AlixPartners is advising the company.
  • High YieldValeant PharmaceuticalsForesight Energy and Community Health Systems all issued new high yield debt this past week and what screams of a massive yield grab. No, we're not joking: this actually happened. And demand was so strong that upsizing took place. We repeat: "demand was so strong that upsizing took place."
  • Oil & Gas Fallout. Like we said last week, we're crushing Ramen so it's hard to feel sorry for a man pulling in $2mm and a $50k/month consulting fee, but its interesting to see some of the effects of the energy downturn - here, relating to Energy XXI's former CEO. 
  • Power. The Westinghouse saga got juicier with Weil and the Japanese Prime Minister basically saying put up or shut up. Meanwhile, FirstEnergy is involved in shenanigans and Exelon is now getting active
  • Private Equity History LessonA review of J.Crew's take-private transaction and private equity's affinity for dividends, long-term viability be-damned. 
  • Puerto Rico. Sh*t is getting real and people are starting to clamor for bankruptcy.
  • TelevisionNetflix is going after unscripted reality TV. Choice quote: "The competition should be scared out of their minds. These guys are monsters — they're coming in to play and play hard."
  • Uber. Expansion in India seems to be predicated upon a mountain of driver debt.

  • Rewind I: Five weeks ago we reported the following: "The Finish Line Inc. announced its sale of Jack Rabbit Sports this week (66 locations) for undisclosed terms. "Undisclosed terms" = GU gels and a jock-strap." Apparently, we were too generous with our characterization of the financial consideration. Something tells us this won't stop Peter J. Soloman from dutifully and opportunistically noting the tombstone on its pitch materials for the next big retail mandate.  See, also, this.
  • Rewind II: Looks like Avaya Inc. has a potential buyer in publicly-traded Extreme Networks Inc. for its networking business (for $100mm).
  • Rewind III: Store closures. Add Staples to the list (70 locations) and Signet Jewelers (165 stores). And here is one report on the failure of BCBG.
  • Chart of the Week
  • Chart of the Week II

News for the Week of 2/5/17

  • Athleisure. Start the funeral dirge. Under Armour reported dreadful numbers and guided poorly, citing the Sports Authority bankruptcy as a reason for decreased exposure to product. Then S&P kicked UA while it was down, downgrading its corporate credit rating from investment grade to high yield. It's not a restructuring candidate with double-digit growth but its results don't bode well for retailers, generally. Good thing J.Crew is NOW starting to focus on athleisure.
  • Avaya. Doing a little damage control.
  • Cumulus MediaWhat the public is learning.
  • Europe. Some expect a bigger year for restructuring in 2017.
  • Private Equity. Some doubts about portfolio quality.
  • Solar. The technology continues to take hold and grab share but there'll be a lot of carnage along the way. Meanwhile, Exxon got pummeled, noting over $2b in writedowns.
  • Retail. As distressed investors and bankruptcy professionals lick their chops over the possibilities with rue21True ReligionClaire's StoresJ.Crew and others, "fast fashion" gets a second look as a culprit in the demise of retail (adding to the typical Amazon narrative). Still, even H&M and Uniqlo have announced intentions to scale back growth plans and/or close stores in the US.
  • More RetailThe Finish Line Inc. announced its sale of Jack Rabbit Sports this week (66 locations) for undisclosed terms. "Undisclosed terms" = GU gels and a jock-strap. Peter J. Soloman served as financial advisor. The quote, "The acquisition eases fears that the chain would face liquidation with no strategic buyers for the business"...basically sums up specialty retail. Reasons for the company's struggles are particular to specialty running stores, including, notably a marked decline in marathon participation. It's just not that easy to take a selfie while running 26.2.
  • Morer Retail - Canada. Once high-flying e-commerce startup Shoes.comcapitulates under the weight of multiple lawsuits, thwarting an IPO. In addition to shutting down the e-comm channels, the Vancouver-based company will shut down two brick-and-mortar locations - effectively flushing $45mm of PE down the toilet. Still, that URL seems like it would fetch some value...
  • Fast ForwardWalmart is looking to disrupt Amazon while Amazon is looking to disrupt Alphabet and FacebookAnd UPS. In other words, Amazon is after EVERYONE.
  • Rewind I: Usually we reserve "rewind" for topics we've discussed in previous weeks but we're making an exception here: apparently HMV still exists in Canada. Or did. What a major blast to the past. What were they selling, exactly, 8-tracks?
  • Rewind IIPayless Shoes4400 stores? Wow.  Apropos, retail now the sector with the most distressed debt. In other retail news worth a rewind, Sports Direct is reportedly in talks to acquire Eastern Outfitters, the parent company of Bob's Stores and Eastern Mountain Sports from Versa Capital Management out of bankruptcy. If those names sound familiar, it's because Versa literally just bought them in bankruptcy last year in the Vestis Group case. So, add this to the growing list of Chapter 22 cases. 
  • Rewind III: Given our revelation last week of the connection between Puerto Rico-Dentons-New Gingrich, its intriguing that Greenberg Traurig is distancing itself from another Trump supporter.
  • Chart of the Week: Sometimes to disrupt the incumbents, you have to bleed cash like nobody's business...