We've Reached Peak #Retailapocalypse ($ARCC $MNI)

Who knew that another element of the retail story is international postal law and an app called Wish? This is bananas. Choice quote: "Services like this offer us a preview of a maximalist capitalist future, in which the near-entirety of current-day retail -- stores, humans and even storelike website -- have been identified as gatekeepers or sources of friction and accordingly obliterated." OBLITERATED. What the F? Meanwhile, you know you've reached peak #retailapocalypse when even the New Yorker is writing pieces about J.Crew's J-Crewiness, bad merchandizing, bad debt, and Matrix-esque mind-control efforts. This just goes to show how hard it is to avoid the retail story these days. Compounding matters, publicly-traded BDCs let us see how they view the retail landscape and, in this case, Ares Capital is writing down the value of their loan in Things Remembered Inc. For those with short memories, Things just did an out-of-court restructuring transaction. Clearly things haven't improved much. Finally, the tack-on affect of the brutal retail environment is showing up elsewhere: The McClatchy Company, for instance, reported a 7% drop in total revenue on account of a 22% decline in print advertising (not offset by a rise in digital advertising) with revenue losses from The Sports Authority and hhgregg Inc. cited. The company is 5.4x levered on $874mm of debt but has no near-term maturities and an untapped revolver. Still, the company is in full-on triage mode trying to expedite its digital transformation which, clearly, is a matter of life or death.

Brief (and Limited) Reality Check

There's a lot of bluster in the restructuring community about Amazon, e-commerce and the death of brick-and-mortar retail. It's hard not to be sanguine about the future of retail when the bankruptcy roll is littered with names like General Wireless Operations, hhgregg Inc., Gander Mountain Co., Gordmans Stores Inc., and Vanity Shop of Grand Forks Inc. - and those are just the filings that have occurred in March.

In the interest of completeness, though, there is SOME nuance here and that nuance largely depends on socioeconomic and geographic considerations. This Washington Post story features interesting data about the adoption of e-commerce and while it has grown in nearly every state, there are some states that have been very slow to adopt it, e.g., Idaho, South Dakota, Colorado, Arkansas and Arizona. The macro trend remains the obvious, of course, but we thought this was worth noting. Sometimes it's erroneous to paint with too broad a brush.