Recruiting & Business Development (Long Innovation)

Think Outside the Box, We Say

We can't seem to get over our own obsession with private equity/biglaw/bank recruiting; we've written about it herehere and here. Why? Mostly because its stupid-absurd which, in turn, makes it funny. But after reading about the rise of corporate pop-ups here, we came up with what we think is a genius way to jumpstart business development and recruiting efforts in one fell swoop: a biglaw pop-up store. Stick with us here: picture a mall with next-wave bankruptcy candidates like Charming CharlieNine WestBon-Ton Stores ($BONT), Sears Corporation ($SHLD), Destination XL ($DXLG), Destination Maternity ($DEST), etc. (collectively, the "Effed Retailers"). Picture, also, within close proximity, a corporate pop-up for, say, Law Firm AB&C LLP featuring all kinds of fancy screens rolling clips of how bada$$ and extreme its attorneys are while arguing (or singing) in court on behalf of retail clients. Imagine the product placement opportunities for the likes of Payless Shoesourcerue21 Inc.Gymboree, and True Religion (the "Successfully Reorganized Retailers"). "Stop by the AB&C LLP popup for awesome limited edition kicks and 'lit' specialty women's apparel," they'll say. In the opposite corner there can be a skull-and-crossbones banner hovering over an ominous display of retail carnage, e.g., hhgregg, Gander Mountain, etc. - all of which were, conveniently, of course, represented by other firms. Like, literally, a pair of running kicks should be on fire and death metal ought to be playing on the loud speaker. Of course, the managers of the Effed Retailers will see this and, in a panicked frenzy, start dialing corporate HQ asking, "Who is our Restructuring counsel?" Oh, really? Fire them. We need to hire AB&C LLP stat!" Meanwhile the Successfully Reorganized Retailers will generate some revenue from the product placement which, of course, they'll want to pay back when they inevitably are no longer "successful" and need to file for Chapter 22. Cha Ching! Another retention. Don't forget the REITs: Simon Property Group ($SPG) can continue to boast about 97% occupancy rates thanks to AB&C LLP filing space. And, finally, think of the branding potential. Law students and future law students will walk by and say "Holy crap. I want to go work at THAT law firm, AB&C LLP." Massive cross-benefit for recruiting. Whichever of your firms deploys this strategy first can send royalties via Paypal to petition@petition11.com.

Disruption. In Human Terms.

Manchester Vermont is One of Many Towns to Feel Effects of E-Commerce

This is a heart-breaking piece about the effect of e-commerce on Manchester Vermont, where the commercial vacancy rate has risen from 5 to 15%. People seem to be legitimately suffering. Choice quote, "Morrow admitted to sleepless nights, staring at the ceiling and worrying about the economic storms stirred by Internet commerce." Yikes. Our readers know that we like to snark but this is no laughing matter. 

Retail bankruptcies are so common these days that perhaps we've become de-sensitized to the effect that this rapid change is having. Prior to Payless and Gymboree - two recent actual reorganizations - most of these businesses have liquidated. Those are jobs gone forever. That is tax revenue gone forever. Others have pivoted towards the internet and e-comm only, leaving shuttered brick-and-mortar and blighted communities in their wake. 

Is this depressing for a Monday? You bet. But we hope that it provides a little bit of motivation to those restructuring professionals out there reading this. Maybe you can help drive a retail client towards a resolution that keeps it in business? 

We also hope that it provides those tech entrepreneurs looking to "disrupt" the world a little bit of perspective. While the article may be speaking about "unintended consequences," they are consequences nonetheless. And those consequences are affecting thousands of lives. 

A Rare Retail Surprise to the Upside

Long-watched Claire's Stores Inc. surprised to the upside this past week asApollo Investment Corporation's operators appear to be working their magic (yes, a rare PETITION shoutout to the PE bros). The company's bonds reacted favorably and now many think that the company will manage to make it until...wait for it...at least 2018 - not exactly the greatest vote of confidence given that we're in Q3 already and most retailers are gonna want to give the holiday season a spin (unless we're talking about Gymboree). Elsewhere, Nordstrom ($JWN) is talking a go-private transaction.

Alternative Use Cases for Malls ($UPS, $RNP)

There's a lot of talk about alternative use cases for vacant retail space. Here's what is happening with some empty Sports Authority locations. Some other new use cases are floated here. Sure, sky-diving in a mall sounds amazing, right? I mean if something were to go wrong, at least you'll go splat on some hard floor where some trinket used to be sold rather than over some lake in New Zealand. So extreme, brah. Given all of the trends - exacerbated by the reportedly imminent bankruptcy of Gymboree (1300 stores) - certain investors like Cohen & Steers ($RNP) are staying away. Some commentators, however, think all of this talk about the "retail apocalypse" is just fear-mongering. Regardless where you come out on this, e-commerce is on the rise and all of it is, counter-intuitively, hurting others outside of retail too, including UPS ($UPS), which is experiencing rising costs to handle all of the deliveries - costs that it may attempt to pass back to the retailers.

Interesting Restructuring News

  • 3-D Printing. A few weeks ago we noted the disruptive potential of 3-D printing. You can revisit that piece here. The spare parts market already appears to be under seige.
  • Automation. We hate to pick on support staff as there's been a lot of pain there the past decade but...short administrative assistants? On the flip side, note this.
  • European Distressed Debt. The vultures are looking at Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, last week Agent Provocateur, this week Jones Bootmaker = the latest PE-backed European retailer staring down the brink of administration(with KPMG hired to find a buyer).
  • Grocery. Food deflation appears to be leveling off - good news for grocers who had a rough 2016 (which we covered previously here).
  • Guns. Looks like the rise in anti-Semitism and hate crimes hasn't translated into robust gun sales: Remington Arms Co. is downsizing. The $2.6mm trade claim the company has in the Gander Mountain Company bankruptcy won't help matters either.
  • Malls. The Providence Arcade is deploying new and creative ways to put mall space to use. This brings a whole new meaning to "consumer culture." Meanwhile, more on malls becoming the new big short.
  • RestaurantsRuby Tuesday is now for sale after closing 100 locations. UBS is apparently the financial advisor.
  • Retail. Shocker! A newly released report delineating the most valuable retail brands failed to include Charming Charlie'sPayless Shoesrue21J.Crew...ah, you get the point. Also notably absent from this list is Neiman Marcus which, given its lack of scale (42 stores, ex-Last Call & Bergdorf Goodman), isn't all too surprising on a relative basis but that hasn't stopped it from attracting attention from Hudson's Bay Co (note: the Canadians have been taking a lot of interest in US retail lately, see, also Eastern Outfitters). Looks like some teens DO shop at Neiman Marcus but find malls, generally, "vanilla"...choice quote here: "I like finding stuff on eBay - clothes and accessories that no one else is wearing...[e]verything you can't find in a mall." See, also, Poshmark. Meanwhile, private equity backed retail is especially sordid.
  • Retail IIBon Ton Stores (BONT) reported higher earnings, cost savings that bested projections and a free cash flow positive '16 (compared to a wildly cash flow negative '15). But same store sales were down big. A few takeaways: 1) bad retail performance is always partially the weather's fault; 2) it's planning to make its landlords sweat with lease negotiations; 3) it's closing 46 stores in '17; 4) it's picking from the carcass of closed Macy's locations, poaching vendors and sales associates; and 5) it's still over-levered AF. While there is no near-term maturity post-retirement of the '17 second lien senior secured notes and the company claims liquidity through '17, the company is still levered at 8.5x and raising rates, generally, won't help retail. And the stock trades in dogsh*t (reverse split?) territory at $1.00. Hmmmmm.

  • Fast Forward: iHeartMedia launched an optimistic restructuring process seeking to swap more than 90% of its $20b of debt; Gymboree got a going-concern warning in the face of declining revenue and same-store sales and a 12/17 maturity; Gulfmark Offshore skipped its interest payment triggering a 30-day grace period due 4/15; the same date marks the forbearance expiration agreed to by lenders of 21st Century Oncology; and Concordia International Corp. reported HORRIBLE numbers and declined to provide go-forward guidance given the headwinds confronting drug pricers. 
  • Rewind I: We swear we're not picking on Sun Capital Partners but this week S&P Global Ratings downgraded Vince Intermediate Holdings to CCC+ making SCP's portfolio a virtual retail minefield. 
  • Rewind II: Yawn, more Westinghouse
  • Rewind III: Last week we covered Aquion Energy in our summaries of cases (click company name for summary). Turns out, this dog is more controversial than we thought as its another example of government subsidy gone wrong. Which is not to say we're not for experimentation/funding with/for alternative energy businesses, particularly in storage. But the comments to this seem on point.
  • Chart of the Week

Chart of the Week II