Retail Happenings of the Week

Millennials don't like brands. No news there. But this piece about the rise of no-name attire has some projections that furthers the "Amazon Effect" narrative ((and helps explain the seemingly ludicrous Kroger Inc. ($K) clothing line)). "This year Amazon will leapfrog T.J. Maxx owner TJX Cos. and Macy’s Inc. to become the second-biggest seller of apparel and footwear in the U.S., Wells Fargo estimates." And "In some categories—like the active wear that Americans increasingly wear all day, whether or not they hit the gym—private labels combined account for 20 percent of the market, according to researcher NPD." Short Lululemon ($LULU)? Addition reason (see above) to short TJ Maxx ($TJX)?

If this stresses you out, at least you can double down on discounted protein and work off the anxiety, given the look of GNC Holdings Inc. ($GNC). What does this all mean for the malls? Not a whole lot of good. Hence, mud. Though some beg to differ to the tune of $25b.

Some predictions for 2018. The most obvious of which is that there'll be more retail bankruptcies to come in 2018. Just (maybe?) not Charlotte Russe, which has seemingly pulled off a miracle and kept itself out of bankruptcy court with a consensual deal with its lenders in hand. Last note: while "treasure hunt" retailers may not be impervious to Amazon, Costco Wholesale Corporation ($COST) very well may be: it reported a 17% increase in earnings, a 42.1% increase in e-commerce sales and steady membership rates. The stock popped nicely going into week's end.

Fast Forward: Breitburn, Faraday Future, Patriot National Inc., Etc.

Breitburn Energy Partners LP inches closer to the end of its bankruptcy. More noise around Faraday FutureChoice quote"A convertible note of more than $400 million, with a 12 percent interest charge, becomes payable immediately if Faraday & Future Inc. can't raise the Series A round by December...." Well, it's December. Meanwhile, high level employees can't jump ship fast enoughPatriot National Inc. ($PN), a technology services provider for insurance companies, announced that it has a restructuring support agreement in place with major lenders Cerberus Business Finance LLC and TCW Asset Management Company LLC and the company will be filing for bankruptcy in the District of Delaware. Peace out Charming Charlie LLCThe J.G. Wentworth Company ($JGWE) will be filing its prepackaged bankruptcy on or around January 18. GNC Holdings Inc. continues to try and refinance its debt and is finding the capital markets aren't as forgiving as they once were on the heels of Vitamin World's liquidation and given Amazon's penchant for selling everything and anything, including meathead stuff. 

Meatheads Everywhere Lament: Vitamin World Going Bankrupt

We admit it. There were a few folks on the team who used to do the whole vitamin thing. We were pumping iron, man-scaping, and trying everything and anything to "get shredded" like Brad Pitt in Fight Club. Now we just drink Soylent and Juicero

No, we're not serious. About the Soylent part. And, CLEARLY, the Juicero part. 

Anywho, the vitamin/nutrition space has gotten hammered and...hold on to your butts...another retailer is filing for bankruptcy. Enter Vitamin World which, per this Reuters report, may file bankruptcy as soon as this month to effectuate the closure of some of its 345 stores. Apparently, they've spent the better part of the last several months trying to negotiate themselves out of some onerous leases (query: who is their real estate advisor? Update: RCS Real Estate Advisors) and haven't been successful enough to thwart a bankruptcy filing. What's interesting about this is that Portrait Innovations filed for chapter 11 earlier this week for the same reason. Apparently landlords are convinced they can get better rent elsewhere. Maybe they think Square ($S) will be opening up more brick-and-mortar. But we digress

Square Store - NYC. For Realz. 

Square Store - NYC. For Realz. 

Look, "the Amazon effect" is real and Vitamin World probably won't be the last vitamin/nutrition business to wear the dreaded Scarlet BK. Seriously, look at these 1-year charts: blood red everywhere...

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Source: Yahoo! Finance

This won't be the last distressed situation you hear about in the vitamin space. 

Correction: it was brought to our attention that the original piece gave the impression that all the stores are closing. We have edited the above to indicate that the plan is to effectuate some closures. 

GNC Holdings Inc. Needs Some Protein Powder

GNC is in Trouble

GNC Holdings Inc. ($GNC) remains in focus as it reported its Q2 numbers this past Thursday. In summary, decreased consolidated revenue, decreased domestic (company-owned and franchised) same-store sales, decreased net income and operating income, decreased manufacturing/wholesale business...basically a hot mess. Limited bright spots included China sales and the new GNC storefront on Amazon. You read that right: the storefront on Amazon. Ugh. The company has $52mm of cash, $163.1mm available under its revolver and a robust $1.5b of long-term debt on its balance sheet. The stock traded down 7% after the announcement (but was up on the week).