Chart of the Week: China's Mobile Internet Usage

For context, there are more millennials in China than there are citizens in the United States. This screams "opportunity," which is why Apple Inc. ($AAPL) and so many others are looking to play ball there. Starbucks ($SBUX), for example, is fusing tech with retail to appeal to the Chinese consumer. The IMF, however, is concerned (must read). 

Retail (Long Organized Crime)

Long Live Tony Soprano

So, apparently organized crime is a "new" threat to retail. Granted The Sopranos hasn't been on TV for years, but wethinks organized crime has always had a grand ol' time boosting valuable merchandise. Not entirely sure what's new about this. The masterplan that the Sun describes at the Apple Store in Towson hardly sounds like a sophisticated operation. But, what do we know? That said, we read the piece and we couldn't help but think about Walmart's ($WMT) employee delivery program. We mean, seriously, what could go wrong? 

Chart of the Week I: The Rise of Corporate Cash

Corporate cash load - now a record $2.26t - is showing solid growth (Apple is literally 10% of that). And people wonder why the private markets are the new public markets. With that much cash on balance sheet, is it any wonder that Bonobos, Plated, Jet.com, and others are getting scooped up by corporates prior to ever hitting the public market (and having to show the grotesque nature of their revenue models)? P.S. This doesn't count the $1.53 trillion of private equity "dry powder" that's just laying in wait. 

If Apple is Screwed, We're All Screwed

We've been giving a lot of thought to the retail malaise currently infecting the US and one thing we debated recently is what would happen if Apple, Tesla, and some of the other saviors of US malls were to see a massive turn to the downside? Well, earlier this week Apple had a bit of bad news including potential delays to the iphone 8 and this: an indication that the flagship Apple store in the (recently CMBS'd) Boston Properties' GM Building on 5th Avenue is experiencing some flagging revenue numbers. No bueno. Choice quote NSFW: "'I think retail is f*cked, plain and simple,' developer Billy Macklowe said at a conference in April. Walking down Fifth or Madison Avenues, he said, 'just on a visual basis, you will get to a radical vacancy rate the major brokerages aren't putting out there.'" Wow. (PETITION note: read the comments too. Many appear to be spot on). 

Andrew Left and Short-Selling a Company Into Bankruptcy

The recent New York Times profile on Andrew Left (@CitronResearch) is fascinating and worthy of a solid read. There are a ton of little nuggets in there even if, in some cases, it begs certain follow-up questions. The comments following the article are equally interesting, many of them decrying the author for pitching Left as this savior of the little man without any regard whatsoever for who might be affected by a stock decline of the sort suffered by Valeant Pharmaceuticals ($VRX)(spoiler alert: lots of Moms and Pops...but also a lot of hedge funds who checked into the "hedge fund hotel").

A few things left us curious:

1. Track Record. The article notes that Left has a positive track record. But unlike Jim Chanos, another reputed short seller, Left needn't disclose his holdings and manages his own money. So how does the author KNOW this? He backs up the statement with this: "On average, the value of companies he writes about drop 10 percent in a year, and some drop as much as 95 percent." Well, on average, how many of Left's investments does he actually write about? Isn't the denominator there important? 

2. Abstract References. Why not more detail behind the referenced jewelry chain masquerading as a subprime lender? Presumably this is Signet Jewelers ($SIG)(which has now sold its financing business)? Wouldn't it make sense to highlight a business that caters to that demographic?

3. Lacking Disclosures. Left's observation that companies don't disclose information for a reason is interesting. With negative free cash flow and increasing heaps of debt AND no transparency behind viewership of original content, Netflix ($NFLX) comes to mind. If the numbers were bananas, they'd presumably justify the high content costs, yeah? We'd think that, as a basic matter, any analyst trying to understand the billions spent on such content would want to know what some of the metrics are there. Similarly, Apple ($AAPL) doesn't line-item Apple Watch sales; instead, it embeds those sales in a catchall line-item of "Services." That, too, should give some cause for concern (though Mary Meeker says 25% of Americans now own wearables). 

Mary Meeker's Internet Trends. This is Real Disruption, Summarized

We may have to dedicate more time to this at a later point but for anyone who has some time to kill, we HIGHLY recommend this lauded report by Kleiner Perkins' Mary Meeker. The short version: smartphone growth is flat-lining as is internet growth (in the US, India on the other hand has only 27% internet penetration); 20% of mobile inquiries are via voice now - a mind blowing number (per Google); 25% of Americans own a wearable and 60% of consumers are willing to share their health data (with Google, Microsoft, Samsung and Apple best positioned to take advantage of it); US Net Debt to GDP is 77% as of 2016 and trending towards 105% by 2035 (US record surpassing WWII); household debt is back at peak levels last seen in Q3 2008 with student loans +144% and auto loans +44%.

Notable (FTI Consulting, LeEco, Skip Barber Racing School)

Some movement within FTI Capital Advisors. In other news, there is an entity called FTI Capital Advisors.

LeEco is a sinking ship - in the US at least.

Looks like the Skip Barber Racing School had to step on the breaks to park in bankruptcy court. No, we're not proud of this joke...not at all. Our eyes are set on the beach, dudes.

How Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft and Facebook make their money - broken down in chart form.

The Apple Effect - $P, $AAPL, $FOSL

As the markets wait to see what happens with Spotify, Pandora ($P) is now looking to explore strategic alternatives (and we're listening to"This House is on Fire" by AC/DC as we listen to this). Is this also Amazon Effect? The Apple Effect? After Rdio filed for bankruptcy not long ago and Soundcloud has taken on more debt, it's clear that the music space is still in flux with the big players crowding out the smaller guys. PS. Since we're so sick of hearing about the "Amazon Effect," we'll double down on the "Apple Effect": Fossil ($FOSL) watches appear to be feeling it.

Chart of the Week I: Top Five Market Caps as of 03/17

Are you wondering why we spend so much time talking about technological innovation and what that means in terms of "disruption" of incumbents? Well, this is why...

Interesting Restructuring News

• Busted Tech. This is becoming a regular topic. After LivingSocial (remember LivingSocial?) and its $6b valuation sold for bupkis, serious doubts now surround its acquirer, the publicly-traded Groupon. 

• Lit. Google released the results of a survey showing what is currently considered "lit" (read: "cool") among the teen and millennial demographics. A few observations: 1) Ivanka Trump's brand was conspicuously missing and so clearly there is a high probability of this being "fake news" (yes, we're joking); 2) Netflix and YouTube are the two highest rated brands in both demographics which certainly raises questions about conventional media companies; 3) Tesla is considered the coolest auto company despite not necessarily having the highest brand awareness (nevertheless a positive leading indicator for electric vehicles assuming a) these idiots will drive, b) they'll have money to buy a Tesla, and c) Tesla can manufacture enough cars to meet the supposed demand); 4) Still, car brands across the board are cooler to millennials than teens which raises questions - in the face of autonomous cars - about what car ownership may look like in the next decade; and 5) there is little to no consumer products representation in the "cool" zone outside of footwear and electronics (gaming, Apple, GoPro) which speaks volumes about why we're seeing as much pain in the retail space as we have been. Notably, Uniqlo, Zara and H&M - favorite excuses for why conventional retail is, gulp, out of fashion, are all middling in the 6.5 area. Footnote: Quicksilver looks to have subpar awareness and "lit" ratings which begs the question: how long before Oaktree Capital Management flips it...?

• Post-Reorg Equity. Apparently filing for bankruptcy hasn't turned out too badly for certain oil and gas executives who find that they're realizing a lot of upside value through the reorganized equity of their companies (WSJ firewall). Elsewhere, upon release back into the market, Peabody Energy's equity initially traded up 3.5% only to flip-flop and go negative by over 12% by market close on Tuesday. #MAGA baby! Coal is, uh...back??

• Professional Fees. The American Lawyer seems to have it out for bankruptcy professionals these days as it seems freakishly obsessed with professional fees: in this instance, Weil's fees representing Westinghouse. 

• Restaurants. "There's been an oversupply for 10 years in our industry," says the Darden Restaurants CEO Gene Lene upon announcing the acquisition of Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen. Still, the fast casual space is showing signs of strength: most notably, Panera Bread's stock popped upon acquisition news earlier this week.

• Retail. We really tried to stay away from retail this week because, like you, we're just tired of the story. But, here (video), Jason Mudrick of Mudrick Capital Management provides some interesting thoughts on how to trade the space. This isn't new ground, necessarily, but for the less-initiated, his comments on the difficulty of shorting retail debt may be educational. Note, however, that his views are disputed by analysts at Citi who claim the CMBX trade is over-crowded and that CDS is, in fact, the way to go. Either way, his overall thesis seems a bit inconsistent to us. On one hand, he indicates that the "Amazon effect" (lazy) is leading to a secular decline in retail, generally, but on the other hand he leaves us with the impression that only the lower tier malls will be affected. If the "Amazon effect" is what it is and our parents will die and our kids only shop online (paraphrasing here), why isn't he mentioning the A tier malls as well? This seems to be a blind spot within the restructuring space generally. As we've noted, General Growth Properties and Simon Properties are appearing in the vast majority of these retail cases - even the little ones that nobody appears to have heard of prior to the last few months. Now, granted, there's something to be said for the "replacement value" argument: but are these mall operators really filling vacancies fast enough to maintain revenue and, if so, who is filling the void? Warby Parker currently has 47 "retail locations" (a term we use loosely because this includes small kiosks like the one in the Los Angeles Standard Hotel - basically a cart). Bonobos has 31 locations. Cuyana has three locations (one a pop-up). Birchbox has one location. And most of these are in major cities so not even necessarily in malls. And, directing you back to "Lit" above: we don't see much mall-based retail on that survey - "A" mall-based retail included. So then what? Chiropractors, dentists and clinics? Seems thin. All of this said, the WSJ reported that "the national retail-property market is holding steady," using flat vacancy rates as its measure across shopping centers, regional malls and neighborhood and open-air shopping centers. And mall operators, naturally, are talking a big game. Curious. (*Note: if anyone is interested, we do have a 50+ page hedge fund presentation outlining the CMBX thesis. Let us know).

• Retail II. DAMN IT, retail, we just can't quit you. More from this past week: 1) Citi cut both L Brands and Urban Outfitters from buy to neutral, 2) Ralph Lauren announced the closure of its Fifth Avenue flagship store (with additional closures to come), 3) Bebe Stores announced the closure of its 34th Street store (great quotes within) and 4) the discount space saw some consolidation as Dollar General scooped up Charlotte-based Dollar Express, a Sycamore Partners company. We can therefore add this to our #MAGA! sub-category given the 2700 jobs slated to be cut. SO. MANY. JOBS. LIKE. REMARKABLE.

• Second Order Effects....of advancing car tech. We previously covered Benedict Evans' presentation on the rise of mobile and made some abstract statements relating to second order effects of mobile phones and electric/autonomous cars then. Here, Evans goes a bit further in what makes for a long but interesting read about industries that ought to brace for change (thanks to our friends at Hilco for forwarding to us). TL;DR: car suppliers, machine tooling, car repair, gas stations, convenience store retailers (and, by extension, snack & tobacco providers), building power generation providers, safety equipment manufacturers (i.e., airbags - this is thin, we think, and airbags will probably still be in cars for the foreseeable future), parking operators, truck stops, etc. Of course, this all presumes mass adoption in the time frame the herd generally suggests: 5-10 years. There are notable naysayers.

• Sungevity, a Piece of the Solar Story & Real World Ramifications. Yikes. This is a STINGING synopsis of the downfall of Sungevity, a solar company that recently filed for bankruptcy (our summary and case roster is here). To be fair, the writer seems to have some sort of ax to grind with the company but the comments taken from Glassdoor are, in many respects, heart-breaking and serve as a real-world reminder that while they may line your pockets and juice your bonuses, these cases hurt people. Remember that. 

• Venezuela. With a state oil company debt payment of $2b looming on the horizon, investors are speculating about the likelihood of default.

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• Fast Forward: Someone just please put Seadrill Ltd. out of its misery. Per Bloomberg, rue21 is due any day now. Sequa Corp....finally. And metals/mining looks like its back on the map with the announcement thatA&M Castle & Co. will be filing a prepackaged bankruptcy shortly.

• Rewind I: We've been spending a good amount of time highlighting busted tech lately and so we'll add another (per Fortune): Yik Yak. For the uninitiated, Yik Yak was a high-flying anonymous social media app that garnered $73.5mm of VC from Sequoia Capital at a valuation over $400mm. Now it is effectively selling for parts (to Square?) in a manner that likely won't even cover the VC. Ouch. I suppose we can call this the "Snapchat Effect."

• Rewind II: Ashley Stewart, a plus-size retailer that was in bankruptcy in 2014 opened its first new store last weekend, a counter-narrative to the doom-and-gloom otherwise hanging over retail.

• Rewind III: We've covered Spotify at length and this week's news of a potential direct listing rather than an IPO is interesting. And goes to show what we've been saying: that convertible venture debt it took on is getting expensive.

News for the Week of 01/08/17

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM THE PAST THREE WEEKS (PLAYING CATCH-UP EDITION)

• Distressed Investing Hindsight. Avaya. Phone systems? Who would've guessed this could go wrong? Psssst: don't tell anyone but apparently Avaya and Goodman Networks are apparently in 30-day grace periods.
• Fintech. Cracks in P2P lending by way of bankruptcy (Argon Credit).
• Fraud. Theranos announced that it's letting go 41% of its work force - which we believe is a precursor to bankruptcy. Why file? To sell IP. If they actually even have any. And address litigation. Meanwhile, Snapchat, on the heals of a possible IPO, is being sued for misleading investors. Toss in ethical issues around Hampton Creek and others and we may start seeing some fraud-related bankruptcies a la 2001.
• Grocery. Is Kroger's buyout announcement another leading indicator of future distress?
• Media. Ev Williams, founder of Twitter and Medium, acknowledges that the ad-supported media model is broken while significantly cutting headcount. It seems that $150mm VC funding can't help produce a new business model. 
• Retail. It looks like the Trump Job Preservation Tour forgot to schedule stops at KMart, Sears and Macy's (meanwhile Sears unloaded Craftsman and JC Penney shed its HQ). Next up: Kohl's? Ugly 20% drop after a nasty comp store sales drop and forecast cut. Apparently, omnichannel customers are the key to the riddle. Meanwhile, Amazon is sniffing around American Apparel (as is Forever 21, reportedly) and Boohoo is focused on Nasty Gal. Gap - mostly due to a 12% comp sales increase at Old Navy - showed positive signs while Neiman Marcus cancelled its IPO, a clear negative.
• Taxi Companies. Uber is the death of traditional taxi companies and new tech companies that support the taxi companies (Karhoo). Which means those companies must really suck since Uber burned $3b in '16.
• Wearables. Pebble. "Acquired." Vinaya. Bankrupt. Does someone want to raise us a Jawbone?
• Fast Forward: With Amazon and Apple in the mix, music streaming services are struggling to make money and Soundcloud may be the closest victim. Restructuring professionals will remember that Rdio already went through bankruptcy and sold to Pandora.
• Fast Forward II: Remember Exco?
• Rewind I: Platinum Partners. It's amazing how funds get away with this nonsense: 17% returns for 13 years.
• Rewind II: Athleisure. Financials-related Uh oh (Finish Line). And bankruptcy-related uh oh (Yogasmoga). But like most things, Amazon gives zero $&%s.
• Rewind III: Coal. Maybe Trump will help the "clean coal" industry after all. And yet solar continues to progress, as does wind (in the UK and elsewhere). Ps, $361 billion is an awfully large number. And now things are progressing on the storage side thanks to Elon Musk.
• Chart of the Week: