That Escalated Quickly: Toys R' Us Continues to Fade...

Distressed Investors and Private Equity Owners Seemingly Surprised

People can't seem to get enough of it and so we'll lead again with...you guessed it...Toys R' Us. Let's warm you up with a brief history lesson. Last week we speculated that supplier concerns were turning a stressed situation into a distressed situation. Looks like we may have been right. And so investors who may have been caught off guard are sending CDS coverage flying through the roof in an effort to hedge the value of rapidly declining debt holdings. Speaking of investors who may be worried...CMBS anyone? Now, rumors are that Alvarez & Marsal LLCand Prime Clerk LLC have been hired by the company to complement the previous retentions of Kirkland & Ellis LLP and Lazard Ltd. The smart money seems to think that that full array of professional retentions means a bankruptcy filing is IMMINENT. Alternatively, perhaps the public's newfound awareness of that full array of professional retentions means a bankruptcy filing is imminent. These things have a way of being self-fulfilling. Especially if vendors are paying attention. And it certainly seems like they are. Meanwhile, query what this all means for Vornado Realty Trust ($VNO). Sheesh. Anyway, we're old enough to remember when there was talk of an IPO.